Crude Oil Trade... The Starting of the End?

I have been monitoring the Oil & Gas ETFs (especially Ultra & Ultrashort Oil & Gas ETFs)* to gain more understanding of the interest in Oil & Gas sector.

The following graph reflects the market cap of each ETFs which I have been tracking since 5th August.

Notice the increasing market cap of Ultra Oil & Gas ETF as Crude Oil price drops and reverse for UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF.

The above chart shows the decreasing interest of short-oil trades. However, does this mean that money is pouring into the long-oil counterpart? We'll answer this question in the next section below.

Keep a watch out on your short-oil trade and possible exit once the market cap is near balance. Should the rate of change stays, it should roughly be in the next month or two.

To answer the question above: "Does this mean that money is pouring into the long-oil counterpart?", let's examine the following stacked chart which shows the combined/total market cap for both the ETFs.

Notice the declining trend? People are definitely pulling their money out of any oil & gas trade and putting it elsewhere...

Is this a sign for equity rebound as money is being pulled out of these trades and poured onto equities? Or money waiting at the sideline?




* I chose these two ETFs as they are the ones directly related to what I invested in. There are so many other ETFs that does similar trades and thus readers discretion is advised. This analysis is meant as a "representative" of the trade and not the collective whole.